COPA model homepage

Climate based Optimization of renewable Power Allocation (COPA) is a renewable electricity system model based on the principle that long-term climate change mitigation goals need high levels of renewable electricity penetration. The model therefore aims at exploring the characteristics of such systems and focuses on the underlying meteorological processes that strongly drive the dynamics of renewable electricity generation. Currently, the model is able to depict solar PV, wind, and hydropower production.

The model takes as input timeseries of renewable power production from solar PV, wind, and hydro power and minimizes the amount of thermal backup power production by optimizing the choice of renewable production locations, i.e. by optimizing the portfolio of renewable power production options in a linear programming approach. Additionally, other flexibility mechanisms such as storage and demand side response can be implemented in the model. Thermal power production is not modelled in great detail, although this is possible, wherever sufficient data is available.

The model was first developed for Brazil, but aims at reaching global coverage. For that reason we are using globally available climatological datasets - either from temporally and spatially highly resolved reanalysis products such as the MERRA and ECMWF interim reanalysis or from future climate change scenarios. Those products have been validated for utilization in energy system models against ground measurements for different world regions and we aim at additionally validating locations around the globe.

Publications

Journal articles

Schmidt, J., Cancella, R., Pereira Jr., A.O., 2016. An optimal mix of solar PV, wind and hydro power for a low-carbon electricity supply in Brazil. Renewable Energy 85, 137-147.
link (gated) early working paper (free)

Schmidt, J., Cancella, R., Pereira Jr., A.O., 2016. The effect of windpower on long-term variability of combined hydro-wind resources: The case of Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 55, 131;141.
link (gated) early working paper (free)

Schmidt, J., Cancella, R., Pereira Jr., A.O., n.d. The role of wind power and solar PV in reducing risks in the Brazilian hydro-thermal power system. Energy.
link (gated)

Code

Please see this page if you're looking for code to transform reanalysis data into renewable power generation.

The current version of the R and GAMS-code of COPA, tailored to the case of Sweden, can be found on github: COPA on github

Datasets

6-hourly wind power production for four Brazilian states for the period 1979-2014 simulated from ECMWF-interim

This data set contains a 6-hourly production timeseries for the period 1979-2014 for wind power for one turbine (Time zone UTC, in kWh) for the Bahia (BA), Ceará (CE), Rio Grande do Norte (RN), and Rio Grande do Sul (RS). We used the ECMWF-interim reanalysis dataset to derive windspeeds and calibrated windspeed data against ground measurements. Reanalysis data points are chosen so that the simulated wind production is similar to the wind regime of wind turbines in operation in 2014/2015. We simulated power output from an Enercon E82 turbine. The exact procedure applied can be found in our paper: link (gated) early working paper (free).

Daily inflows into Brazilian hydropower plants for the period 1979-2014 for the four Brazilian subsystems.

Schmidt, J., Cancella, R., Pereira Jr., A.O., 2016. An optimal mix of solar PV, wind and hydro power for a low-carbon electricity supply in Brazil. Renewable Energy 85, 137-147.

Research Projects

Project Title	Duration	Institution	Partners
A renewable electricity system with high shares of intermittent production: the case of Brazil	1/2014-6/2015	Energy Planning Program, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro	-
Integrating renewable electricity systems with the biomass conversion sector: a focus on extreme meteorological events	9/2016-8/2018	Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna	Energy Engineering, Luleå University of Technology

COPA model